London (Reuters) - plan of the Germany to close down all its nuclear facilities by 2022 will add up to 40 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year as the towers of country to fuels fossil, analysts said on Tuesday.
Additional emissions would increase the permit application of carbon under trade regime of the European Union, thus adding a little price for carbon and the costs of pollution for the EU industry.
"We will see a pick-up in coal German burn," said analyst for Barclays Capital Amrita Senator "longer term, they will be using more renewable energy and gas but this year and next, we should see much support for the coal burn.".
The phase-out is seen as more political that technical, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel trying to capture an anti-nuclear sentiment following the crisis of Fukushima at the Japan.
Ecologists welcome change, even if some have demanded a more rapid elimination, hoping that it could stimulate a shift towards renewable energies they regard as less harmful to avoid radioactive waste.
But analysts say that the move will also see an increase in gas emissions greenhouse warming equivalent to the annual emissions of the Slovakia, as the Germany uses gas and coal to plug a gap between the generations in power, all of which are two carbon-emitting more than nuclear energy.
This calculation implied scepticism with the statement of the coalition that he cut energy demand and develop the use of renewable energy such as solar and wind energy.
Deutsche Bank analysts found an extra 370 million tonnes of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) until 2020, extra tones 406 million of Societe Generale.
Matteo Mazzoni, Nomisma Energia the Italy analyst, believes an extra extra tones 20-29 million of CO2 per year.
"This is not likely to be much higher prices in the medium term, unless the price of electricity comes under pressure," Mazzoni said, referring to the price of emission permits called allowances EU (saw).
SocGen analyst Emmanuel Fages increased its third-quarter 2011 EUA price forecast by a modest 0.5 cents to 17 euros per ton and reassess other prices.
The reference us contract for December 2011 delivery index rated 17.24 EUR ($24.63) by your lunchtime Tuesday, 35 cents or 2 percent on the day.
"The carbon price should obviously also get an uplift due to this feeling born of the decision, but it will be limited and temporary,"Fages said, adding "the market remains largely saturated (saw)" for the two years to come.""capping any significant increase in prices in the short term
The Community Exchange system is intended to limit industrial emissions by allocating a fixed quota of saw some 12 600 factories and power plants but the recession in 2009 left a glut of licence.
(Written by Gerard Wynn; editing by James Jukwey)
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