PARIS (AFP) - climate change is on the right track to disrupt food crops of lifeline across large parts of Africa and Asia already mired in chronic poverty, according to an international study published Friday.
More than 350 million people are facing a "Storm" conditions for food disaster, warns the report by scientists at the Consultative Group on international agricultural research (CGIAR).
Temperature increases projected by the specialists of the climate one could, by 2050, shorten the seasons below the critical threshold of growth, aggravate the variability of weather and make several regions dominated by subsistence inappropriate for the main crops.
If these areas first have a history of persistent food shortages, the mixture could be fatal.
"We are beginning to see much more clearly where the effect of climate change on agriculture could intensify the hunger and poverty," said Patti Kristjanson, researcher in the research programme of the CGIAR climate change, Agriculture and food security (CCAFCS).
Farmers know from experience dealing with temperamental weather patterns by planting time changing and the movement of livestock.
But climate change fast and could force them to use "entirely new crops or new farming systems", and many may not able to adapt, Kristjanson said.
The 100-page study identifies points hot "potential food crisis" by the superposition of three kinds of data on global and regional maps.
It identifies areas of heat above optimal conditions - or even downright tolerance - for major crops, including rice, maize and beans.
Average maximum temperatures during the growing seasons, for example, are poised to rise above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) in some parts of the West and South Africa, the India and China by 2050.
In some areas agricultural growing seasons can be short at least five per cent, and considered to be in any other year on the other variation of rainfall is probably exceed 21 per cent, as thresholds of viability for some cultures, the study found.
To assess potential impacts, agricultural density and current food insecurity are also taken into account.
"When you put these maps together, they indicate places in the world, where the arrival of the stressful growing conditions could be particularly disastrous," said Polly Ericksen, researcher at the International Institute of research of the livestock of the CGIAR in Nairobi.
Even in rich countries, climate impacts can be very disturbing - French farmers, reeling from the worst drought of spring, in more than a century are slaughtering herds due to lack of food.
But in many countries in Africa and Asia, where farmers are already struggling to meet basic needs, "survival is strongly linked to the fate of regional crop and livestock yields," said Eriksen.
Scientists are working hard to breed new strains of grain staple that will be able to withstand a future warming, but some areas may have to new crops completely to meet the nutrition needs, researchers said.
"The window of opportunity to develop innovative solutions that can effectively address these challenges is limited, said Philip Thornton, a CCAFS researchers and co-author of the study."
"The major adaptation efforts are needed now if we want to avoid the serious food security and livelihood problems later.
没有评论:
发表评论