WASHINGTON (AFP) - climate change is expected to change the world industry in the fruit and nuts considerably as the tree as the pistachio and cherry crops are struggling in the rising temperatures, the researchers said.
A study says that even if polluters takes more action to reduce carbon emissions, the impact of climate change is likely be sufficiently serious for the industry of fruit and nuts of nearly 100 billion dollars annually must reassess planning.
Trees in temperate regions evolved in need of a cold period they can grow in the spring. The rising temperatures pose a special problem for temperate, but relatively warm areas where the winter cold is already in short supply.
The study, published in may by the journal PLoS One online, provides that fruit and nut trees to be very affected in the southeast of United States, of the Southern California and the southwest of the Australia and the province of Yunnan.
Areas which have already seen the worst of the losses from the winter chill include Israel, Morocco, Tunisia, and the region of Cape Town, South Africa, the study said.
Commune of fruits and nuts in warm temperate areas understand with pistachio nuts, which are popular in Iran and in California with nut Grenoble, cherries and peaches.
Co-author Eike Luedeling of the World Agroforestry Centre based in Nairobi, said that long-term investments necessary to reach farmers quickly that fruit and nuts is more vulnerable than many other crops.
"If I am growing wheat or corn, and then a year to year I can decide to plant a little later or earlier planting or plant a variety of different,"said Luedeling."
"But for trees, you can not." Once you have made the decision to plant a certain culture, you're locked in 30 years, "he says.
Luedeling, who observed the problem of the decline in yields while research on Oman trees, said that the economic impact of climate change for the fruit and nuts will depend on the decisions taken today.
"If farmers wake up to the reality of the climate change and begin to make these adjustments - switching of cultivars are appropriate in the future, but not necessarily yet - now and then the disturbance to the markets may be minimal," he said.
"But if this is not, if farmers believe that they can continue to do what makes their grandfathers, then we will see some serious problems", he said.
Forecasts, climate change have a lesser impact on the cool temperate and cold of winter may in fact increase in some colder regions, the study found.
Co-author Evan Girvetz, a Senior Climatologist at The Nature Conservancy, an American environmental group, said colder regions had a window larger to the temperature rise, as they began with more days of cold of winter.
But many warmer parts are "already on the edge of not having enough cold during the winter of fruits and the production of nuts", Girvetz said.
"They have years when you do not have enough full production and while we are moving into the future, we find that which will become more frequent," he said.
Even if the world reduces gas emissions to greenhouse effect, "we are projecting that the qualities of those cultures are likely to reduce", he said.
Intergovernmental Group of experts on the evolution of the climate in a major report in 2007, provides that the world would be heat 1.8 to 4.0 ° C (3.2 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels and that some damage was irreversible.
However, a political boost to fight against climate change has decreased since then, especially in the United States, with a number of conservative legislators raise doubts about science and say that the action is too expensive.
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