PARIS (AFP) - global warming will have a devastating effect on the roads of the Arctic, but open routes up irresistible to the expedition, according to a study published Sunday in the journal of the Nature of the climate change specialist.
"As sea ice continues to melt, the accessibility by sea will increase, but the viability of an important network of roads that depend on freezing temperatures is threatened by climate change,"stated Scott Stephenson of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA).""
Previous research have already identified the Arctic is a more sensitive to the climate of the planet.
Four consecutive years of sea ice shrinking fired summer talk links on Ocean new savings between Europe and Asia and the prospects of a rush to exploit the riches of the region of oil, gas and precious minerals.
The new study is the first to examine in detail the implications of these carriers.
Stephenson team has designed a model of computer on the accessibility of the Arctic and coupled climate simulations used by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
The simulations are based on expected 2-0-3, 4 degrees Celsius temperature increases (3, 6-6. 2 degrees Fahrenheit) overall in the Arctic by 2050, with an even greater increase in winter from 4-6 C (10.8 F - 7.2).
The big victim will be temporary roads that are built on the ice, they will become unstable or marshy as the mercury rises.
These roads play an essential role in access to remote areas in eight countries - Canada, Finland, Greenland, the Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and United States - that have land within the Arctic circle.
In the century, between 11% and 82% of areas that are currently accessible by roads in these countries will be out of reach, according to the study.
In winter, the Russia will lose the road access at level square kilometres (featuring square miles), a total greater than the area of the France, then the Canada could lose access to 400,000 square kilometers (154,000 square miles), which is greater that the area of the Germany.
The fall in both cases is approximately 13% over the Arctic regions which are today accessible to the roads.
Giving a comparison, the researchers said a trip to Yellowknife, the capital of the NWT of the Canada, in the remote community of Bathurst Inlet, which is 3.8 days today would need to 6.5 days in the century.
Winner of global warming, however, would be of maritime traffic.
The ships of Type so-called A - commercial vessels that have limited the ability of icebreaking - would be able to use three of the four major clickstream from July to September.
For example, ships could sail to Rotterdam Europe directly in Alaska; of Amderma in the Northwest of the Russia at the port of Provideniya from the Russian Far East; and since the Canadian port at Murmansk in Russia.
"This will be good news for global maritime interests, who stand to reap savings by movement of cargo by these passages rather than by the Panama Canal, Suez Canal or the Straits of Malacca," Stephenson was quoted in a UCLA press release said.
The exception would be the legendary Northwest Passage, which should not become fully practicable for all summer to this date.
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